How It Works

The crowd score (0–100) is computed from live posted wait times for ~15 headline attractions. We take the median wait time of operating headliners and map it to a score using a piecewise function: • 0–20 → Light (median ≤ 18 min) • 21–40 → Moderate (median 19–36 min) • 41–60 → Busy (median 37–54 min) • 61–80 → Packed (median 55–72 min) • 81–100 → Slammed (median 73+ min)

Wait times are sourced from Queue-Times and refreshed every 5 minutes via server-side caching. Snapshots are stored every 15 minutes for historical analysis. The "last updated" timestamp reflects the most recent successful data fetch.

The predictions use a transparent heuristic model: • Day-of-week patterns (weekends are historically busier) • Week-of-year seasonality (summer peaks, holiday periods) • Holiday proximity (US holidays + adjacent weekends) • SoCal school break windows • Disney seasonal events (Lunar New Year, Food & Wine, Grad Nites) • Weighted average of similar historical dates Confidence levels reflect data coverage: • High — strong historical data for similar dates (< 2 weeks out) • Medium — moderate coverage (2–6 weeks out) • Low — sparse data or many closures (6+ weeks out) This is a v1 model. Future versions will incorporate machine learning for improved accuracy.

Park Outlook is an independent project and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or associated with The Walt Disney Company or any of its subsidiaries. All attraction names and park references are trademarks of their respective owners. Wait times are estimates provided by third-party sources and may not reflect actual conditions. Predictions are probabilistic and should be used as general guidance only.